Session 10 (25/10) Reflections

Brief overview

This session considers two areas, technology assessment and forecasting. The former is necessary so that the societal implications of new forms of technology are considered optimizing the development of emerging technologies. The latter area is important as it helps businesses, governments and individuals to anticipate and prepare for the future.

Interesting ideas/observations

The first reading is an excellent introduction to the diverse techniques that are employed in technology assessment and forecasting. Some techniques are more suitable than others depending on the technology being assessed. However, a combination of techniques are usually used when assessing a particular technology as each method has its weakness and strengths.   

Reading 2 introduced the area of futurology, which is the scientific method of predicting the future. Although it is described as a scientific method, the author points out that futurology is not an exact science. The high degree of uncertainty and large number of variables means that futurology can at best only offer a direction of things to happen.

In Reinventing Technology Assessment (Reading 4), we are introduced to two concepts—Parliamentary Technology Assessment (PTA) and Participatory Technology Assessment (pTA). Parliamentary Technology Assessment refers to any technology assessment which is conducted on behalf of a national legislative body and is best exemplified by the former US Office of Technology Assessment and the European TA agencies. These agencies produce reports that enable parliamentarians to make a more informed decision when deciding on science and technology issues, since most of them do not have scientific backgrounds. Participatory Technology Assessment on the other hand is a method of TA involving participation of laypersons as opposed to experts.

The article considers how technology assessment by laypersons can help contribute to reports that are prepared for parliamentarians. The author’s main argument is that pTA offers valuable insights and complements expert technology assessment so that more holistic reports are created. Also, pTA can raise awareness and create a more informed society that is open to adopting the new technologies in question.

Reading 7 is a review of the book, Competing for the Future. It gives a brief overview of the different chapters and the main arguments put forth. This reading brings an interesting, business perspective to the need for forecasting. Companies that adopt forward-thinking strategies where attempts are made to “seize the future” would not be outpaced by their global competitors.

Key takeaway points

• Technology assessment is essential to help understand the broader societal and ethical implications of new and emerging technologies. A broad variety of techniques have been developed which have different strengths and weaknesses, hence a combination should be used to complement each one.
• Forecasting is important for businesses, governments and individuals as it prepares them for the future. Businesses which do not adopt forward-thinking strategies will merely be keeping pace with current situations and will be outpaced by their competitors.

Issues for further discussion

An interesting comparison was made between futurology and science fiction in Reading 2 and one of the individual presenters also touched on science fiction and forecasting. In my opinion, science fiction, in the form of books or movies, plays a role in shaping society’s views of the possibilities that may occur in the future. For example, George Orwell’s 1984 has definitely impacted upon society’s views of surveillance technologies and privacy. While other movies such as Day After Tomorrow, prompt one to consider the possible future effect of global warming on our lives. It would be interesting to see whether members of the class think that particular science fiction titles have changed their perspectives on the future.

Rating

7/10