Session 10 (25/10) Reflections

Brief overview

This session considers two areas, technology assessment and forecasting. The former is necessary so that the societal implications of new forms of technology are considered optimizing the development of emerging technologies. The latter area is important as it helps businesses, governments and individuals to anticipate and prepare for the future.

Interesting ideas/observations

The first reading is an excellent introduction to the diverse techniques that are employed in technology assessment and forecasting. Some techniques are more suitable than others depending on the technology being assessed. However, a combination of techniques are usually used when assessing a particular technology as each method has its weakness and strengths.   

Reading 2 introduced the area of futurology, which is the scientific method of predicting the future. Although it is described as a scientific method, the author points out that futurology is not an exact science. The high degree of uncertainty and large number of variables means that futurology can at best only offer a direction of things to happen.

In Reinventing Technology Assessment (Reading 4), we are introduced to two concepts—Parliamentary Technology Assessment (PTA) and Participatory Technology Assessment (pTA). Parliamentary Technology Assessment refers to any technology assessment which is conducted on behalf of a national legislative body and is best exemplified by the former US Office of Technology Assessment and the European TA agencies. These agencies produce reports that enable parliamentarians to make a more informed decision when deciding on science and technology issues, since most of them do not have scientific backgrounds. Participatory Technology Assessment on the other hand is a method of TA involving participation of laypersons as opposed to experts.

The article considers how technology assessment by laypersons can help contribute to reports that are prepared for parliamentarians. The author’s main argument is that pTA offers valuable insights and complements expert technology assessment so that more holistic reports are created. Also, pTA can raise awareness and create a more informed society that is open to adopting the new technologies in question.

Reading 7 is a review of the book, Competing for the Future. It gives a brief overview of the different chapters and the main arguments put forth. This reading brings an interesting, business perspective to the need for forecasting. Companies that adopt forward-thinking strategies where attempts are made to “seize the future” would not be outpaced by their global competitors.

Key takeaway points

• Technology assessment is essential to help understand the broader societal and ethical implications of new and emerging technologies. A broad variety of techniques have been developed which have different strengths and weaknesses, hence a combination should be used to complement each one.
• Forecasting is important for businesses, governments and individuals as it prepares them for the future. Businesses which do not adopt forward-thinking strategies will merely be keeping pace with current situations and will be outpaced by their competitors.

Issues for further discussion

An interesting comparison was made between futurology and science fiction in Reading 2 and one of the individual presenters also touched on science fiction and forecasting. In my opinion, science fiction, in the form of books or movies, plays a role in shaping society’s views of the possibilities that may occur in the future. For example, George Orwell’s 1984 has definitely impacted upon society’s views of surveillance technologies and privacy. While other movies such as Day After Tomorrow, prompt one to consider the possible future effect of global warming on our lives. It would be interesting to see whether members of the class think that particular science fiction titles have changed their perspectives on the future.

Rating

7/10

Session 9 (18/10) Reflections

Brief Overview

This week’s focus was on emerging and future technologies. Some interesting technologies that were mentioned include claytronics, plastic electronics, augmented reality, robotics and wireless transmission of electricity. These various technologies can change our world in many ways and their development and adoption will lead to debates on their social, ethical, economic, and political implications.

Interesting Ideas/Observations

The assigned readings were very useful in broadening my knowledge and keeping me abreast of up-and-coming technologies. It is interesting to note that certain technologies such as nanotechnology and robotics tend to appear across all the readings, signifying a possible consensus on what would be the more revolutionary and perhaps controversial technologies of tomorrow.

As noted in Reading 4, these technologies all hold tremendous promise in improving our quality of life although the rate of development from one technology to another will vastly differ. Some technological developments may be stalled due to political reasons or because they threaten to undermine the profits of influential institutions and industries. Debates on the social, economic and political implications of these new technologies have already arisen and will continue to be raised (e.g. the debate on use of nuclear energy).

In particular, ethical debates are bound to occur in areas such as robotics and artificial intelligence (AI). Reading 2 provides an account of the potential environmental and social risks of robotics and AI. As the class discussion on Qing Yun’s presentation on falling in love with virtual people demonstrates, there are already many divergent views on the possible implications of such technologies (e.g. what roles would robots have in society, whether robots and humans can get married). From the discussion, it is clear that the media’s role in terms of science fiction movies and books, can heavily influence thoughts about the future.

Two interesting points were raised in class. The first is that supply can sometimes create demand as exemplified by the iPhone. People may not know that they need these technologies until they experience it. Emerging technologies can therefore create new markets and industries which did not exist previously. The second point is that a confluence of 4 “Smarts”-smart people, smart ideas, smart money and smart alliances and partnerships- will lead to the growth and drive emerging technologies.

Key Takeaway Points

• Imagination plays a key role in the development of emerging technologies
• Debates on the social, ethical, economic and political implications of these new technologies have already arisen and will continue to be raised
• Some of these technologies have the potential to change how we view ourselves as human beings and the way society works (e.g. artificial intelligence)

Issues for Further Discussion

Having seen the advances in gaming technologies where whole new worlds are created with their own landscapes, economies and societies, augmented reality does not seem too far off in the future. The potential for people to become addicted to augmented reality and other possible abuses of such technology would be interesting to discuss.

Rating

7/10

Session 8 (11/10) Reflections

Brief Overview

Energy and world change was the focus of this session. Key concepts such as energy security and sustainability were introduced. The relationship between the world economy and energy consumption and prices was also noted. We discussed at length the rising importance of renewable energy in overcoming limited fossil fuels and combating climate change.

Interesting Ideas/Observations

BP’s yearly review of world energy resources (Reading 1) looked at oil, natural gas, nuclear energy and hydroelectricity in terms of consumption, prices, reserves and production etc. This issue reviewed the energy development in 2009 and showed the link between the world economy and energy consumption. Global economy was in recession and contracted leading to a fall in global energy consumption for the first time since 1982. Consumption of oil, natural gas and nuclear power declined, while coal consumption was essentially flat; only hydroelectric output and other renewable forms of energy increased in 2009. Although renewable forms of energy remain a small share of the global energy mix but they continue to grow rapidly as a result of government support.

Reading 2 looks at technologies and actions that could provide the foundation for a sustainable transport system in OECD countries in particular a system with low or near-zero emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. It notes that climate change is one of the major challenges of the 21^st century and there is a need to move towards a clean energy system based on new technologies. Many of the actions available now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions stemming from transport will also be important steps for a much longer transition to a low-emissions, affordable and secure transport system

The third reading is an assessment of energy policymaking across the globe. Through this report, the World Energy Council hopes to provide guidance on innovative and successful policies and consider how they might best be replicated elsewhere. The report identifies three dimensions to energy sustainability: (i) security of supply of energy, (ii) environmental protection and climate change, and (iii) energy goes hand in hand with development- question of inequalities within and across countries. It is necessary to find a sustainable path that reconciles economic growth, protection of the environment and greater energy equity among peoples. This is possible and technologies we need are at hand, however, the main issue is governance. There is a need effective rules and smart policy frameworks to update our energy policies and ensure that the right resources and technologies are available at the right place and the right time and at the right price.

Reading 4 ties in with our last session on biotechnology, as it considers energy supply based on biomass. The article states that bioenergy is an emerging technology and its development is considered to be a form of evolutionary technology. It notes that there are essentially two distinct areas where biotechnology can contribute: (a) the area of traditional biotechnology (white biotech)- technical use of fermentation processes or enzymes in downstream processes of biomass conversion and (b) green biotech- genetic engineering of plants in order to tailor biomass with respect to their efficiency as energy resource. The article also identifies different fields of research whose integration will help create sustainable biomass based energy technologies, namely, biomass resources, supply systems, end products and conversion.

The Renewables 2010 Report (Reading 5) looks at the status of renewable energy worldwide. According to the report, the world has tapped only a small amount of the vast supply of renewable energy resources, despite the continuing upward trend of renewable energy growth. However, many of the trends reflect the increasing significance of renewable energy relative to conventional energy sources. There has been more active policy development- more than 100 countries had enacted some type of policy target and/or promotion policy related to renewable energy. It also noted the increasing significance of developing countries in advancing renewable energy such as China and India. Interestingly, it mentions that one of the forces propelling renewable energy development is the potential to create new industries and generate new jobs. Another interesting point is rural renewable energy, for example, lighting and cooking from biogas made in household-scale digesters.

One of the Youtube videos shown explained how the switch from wood (renewable resource) to fossil fuels in the UK and US actually prevented the depletion of forests there. I found this historical perspective particularly interesting, since the current trend is to move towards renewable sources and cut our dependence on fossil fuels. Of course the renewable sources of energy, which we are relying on, have changed from wood to other forms, such as solar energy or geothermal energy.

I also felt that the video on Germany’s solar experiment was very enlightening. It served as a good example to illustrate how government energy policies can lead to acceptance and widespread use of renewable energy sources.

Key Takeaway Points

• Consumption of energy resources is linked to the world economy
• Government energy policies are important in ensuring energy security and sustainability
• Renewable energy sources will be increasing important as we try to combat climate change and reduce our dependence on limited fossil fuels

Issues for Further Discussion

Would be interesting to discuss about Singapore’s lack of energy security and what possible steps we can take to increase our use of renewable energy sources such as solar energy

Rating

7/10 

Technology & Privacy

Currently in the midst of writing my individual topical paper on technology and privacy when I came across this case on my twitter feed. It's truly a sad case of technology being abused to invade privacy which ended in the worse possible way. 

Session 7 (27/9) Reflections

Brief Overview

This week we return to the biobusiness revolution to look at the areas of agricultural, environmental and industrial biotechnology.  We saw how the Green Revolution help drastically increase food supply and how biotechnology will continue to help feed the world in the future. The potential of industrial and environmental biotechnology in changing industrial processes in developing countries was also examined. Three videos were shown in class, the first was on the benefits brought by agricultural biotechnology, the second was an interview with Normal Borlaug, the father of the Green Revolution and the last looked at industrial enzymes. The individual presentations in class covered very interesting topics such as Plumpy’Nut and in vitro cultured meat.

Interesting Ideas/Observations

The US has been a forerunner in the area of agricultural biotechnology and reading 3 looks at the opportunities and challenges in the decade ahead. Some issues which were raised include the greater push for labeling of genetically-modified (GM) food. The US does not require labeling to differentiate between GM and non-GM food, however many other countries now require mandatory labeling for food products derived from modern biotechnology while other food manufactures are sourcing for non-transgenic groups creating a segmentation in the marketplace. This would have a negative impact on the US farmers who grow transgenic groups.

Another interesting point which was brought up in the report was the prediction that some of the transgenic plant varieties intended for food use developed over the next few years will likely emerge from the developing world such as China and India. This could have a significant impact on the global genetic engineering debate because large populations of humans will be consuming a staple transgenic whole food. When this happens, it is likely that transgenic food crops would achieve greater acceptance worldwide.

Reading 4 and 7 covered the same topic, mainly how agricultural biotechnology in the form of transgenic plants could help meet our future needs for food. Both articles expressed confidence in the ability of current technologies to meet the current and long term demand for food worldwide. Reading 4 suggests that the one of the threats to reaping the benefits from biotechnology lies in the many well-financed anti-science groups. The author, Norman Borlaug, points out that affluent nations can afford to adopt elitist positions and pay more for food produced by so-called natural methods but the poor and hungry people of this world cannot, these new technology will be their salvation.

Reading 7, on the other hand, mentions the need to mobilize political will and build the necessary institutions in order to ensure that key decisions on investment and policies to eradicate hunger are taken and implemented effectively. Several other challenges against eradicating world hunger include climate change, biofuels (competition for land/resources between growing biofuel crops and food crops or food crops used for biofuels) and the lack of income and absence of effective social safety nets which may lead to a situation of hunger amidst adequate overall supplies.

Both readings 5 and 6 discussed environmental and industrial biotechnology in developing countries. Reading 5 suggests that industrial biotechnology is most likely to be adopted in intermediate developing countries as they would have the basic infrastructure and capabilities to adopt these cleaner production processes. This move would require foreign investment and/or partnerships to help further develop infrastructure and provide financial resources. The last part of the article also looks at some policy directions which can be adopted for biotechnology to be introduced into the industrial sectors of the developing world- international agencies can promote private sector involvement by helping mitigate risk through the establishment of mechanisms to identify promising technologies and provide parallel investments at the initial stage, strong local government involvement is needed, etc.

Similarly, reading 6 reviews the prospects and challenges associated with the introduction of industrial and environmental biotechnology into the global economy, in particular, the ability of developing countries to play a significant role in this emerging field. It suggests that sustaining a new bioeconomy requires the adoption of a global governance regime for biotechnology that helps to bring a large number of developing countries into the global trading system. Failure to do so will create a ‘genetic divide’ among countries and intensify public opposition to biotechnology. The article also stressed the importance of a more open market access system, flexible enforcement of intellectual property rights in industrialized countries and adherence to minimum protection standards in developing countries and wider technology partnerships through corporate alliances, to help develop a new bioeconomy.

Key Take Away Points

• The movement of people away from rural to urban areas has resulted in greater amalgamation of agricultural land allowing the mechanization of farms and greater yields
• The Green Revolution may have vastly increased our food production capabilities but many challenges still lie in the way of acceptance of GM food worldwide
• The use of transgenic crop may be the answer to ensure long term food security for all but political will must be mobilized and the necessary institutions need to be built
• Industrial biotechnology can lead the way to cleaner production processes through the use of biodegradable enzymes instead of polluting chemicals, however, greater investment in this area is required for there to be a shift

Issues for Further Discussion

Most of the discussion in class focused more on agricultural biotechnology, especially transgenic food, it would have been good if industrial and environmental biotechnology was discussed in greater depth.

Rating

9/10 because I felt that the individual class presentations this week were very well done. The topics covered were not only interesting and varied, the presenters also knew their material very well and this made the session informative and enjoyable.